The CRE maturity wall, 2025-2029

The scale of the wall

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Commercial Real Estate Finance Quarterly Databook, which is the industry standard reference for maturity schedules, reported approximately $957 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages maturing in 2025, followed by roughly $688 billion in 2026, $512 billion in 2027, $475 billion in 2028, and $440 billion in 2029. The totals vary by methodology, which is why you'll see slightly different headline numbers from Trepp, CBRE Research, and the Federal Reserve, but all sit within a narrow band: about $2.5 to $3 trillion over the five-year window, front-loaded in the first two years.

Source: MBA CREF Databook. Trepp publishes complementary data drawn from CMBS trust disclosures and is the go-to reference for the securitized portion of the market.

The origination vintage problem

The reason this particular maturity wall is more stressful than previous ones is not the dollar amount. It is the interest rate gap between the loans rolling off and the loans replacing them. The majority of the 2025-2027 maturities were originated in the 2018-2021 window, when the 5-year Treasury yield averaged roughly 1.0% to 2.0%. Those loans are now refinancing into a world where the 5-year Treasury sits near 3.9%.

The chart below shows the 5-year Treasury yield over the last five years. The rate at which most of these maturing loans were originated is visible in the 2020-2021 trough. The gap between that trough and today's level is the maturity wall's core stress factor.

Those loans are now refinancing into an environment where the 10-year Treasury yield typically sits in the 4% to 4.5% range and commercial mortgage rates are several percentage points higher than the expiring coupon. For an interest-only loan with a stabilized rent roll, that means debt service costs can effectively double at renewal, and the new loan proceeds are often smaller because debt service coverage ratios constrain how much principal the property can support.

The Federal Reserve's semi-annual Financial Stability Report has called out commercial real estate specifically in recent editions as an area of elevated credit risk, with office loans the most frequently cited concern. Source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report.

Aggregate view

Office: the most stressed sector

Office faces a combination of pressures that no other sector matches. Structural demand has shifted because of hybrid work, valuations have reset sharply since 2022, vacancy rates in many major downtown markets have reached multi-decade highs, and a number of regional banks have materially reduced their office exposure. The result is that refinancing options are narrower than they were even eighteen months ago.

MBA data shows roughly $206 billion of office debt maturing in 2025, $165 billion in 2026, and $112 billion in 2027. The concentration in the first two years is partly a function of pre-pandemic origination patterns: a lot of five- and seven-year office paper from 2018-2020 is hitting its scheduled maturity right now.

Workouts are increasingly common in the office space. Common structures include term extensions with partial paydowns, discounted payoffs to lenders followed by a fresh origination at a new basis, and recapitalizations involving preferred equity or rescue capital. Where borrowers have liquidity and are willing to cash in, a new permanent loan at a lower LTV with a non-bank lender is often the cleanest path forward.

Multifamily: largest dollar volume, healthiest market

Multifamily has the largest dollar volume of maturing debt across the five-year window: approximately $303 billion in 2025, $220 billion in 2026, and a tapering schedule through 2029. Despite the headline number, multifamily is generally considered the healthiest of the major sectors for refinancing.

The reason is agency liquidity. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain the dominant takeout lenders for stabilized multifamily properties, and their appetite has held up through the rate cycle. For sponsors with properties that hit agency underwriting thresholds (typically stabilized occupancy, clean rent rolls, and adequate DSCR), refinancing into an agency loan at current market rates is generally available, if more expensive than the expiring coupon.

Where multifamily refinancing gets harder is at the edges: properties in markets with sharply negative rent trends, value-add deals that haven't fully stabilized, and highly leveraged 2021 originations where the debt service at today's rates simply doesn't cash flow.

Retail: bifurcated by format

Retail maturity wall pressure is highly format-dependent. Grocery-anchored strip centers, neighborhood retail, and necessity-based retail have proven resilient and generally find willing lenders. Class B and Class C malls, by contrast, face severe valuation pressure and limited takeout capital.

The MBA schedule shows roughly $148 billion of retail debt maturing in 2025, tapering to $68 billion by 2029. Within those totals, the quality of the underlying assets matters enormously. Lender appetite for anchored and necessity retail remains reasonable; appetite for enclosed malls is minimal outside of a small set of specialty lenders.

Industrial: still the asset-class darling

Industrial real estate has been the strongest-performing major sector since 2020, driven by e-commerce demand and supply chain reshoring. That performance has translated into easy access to capital for industrial refinancing. The MBA schedule shows roughly $96 billion of industrial debt maturing in 2025 and tapering modestly through 2029.

Banks, life insurance companies, debt funds, and CMBS are all active in industrial. Underwriting has tightened modestly from the 2021 peak but remains meaningfully more accommodative than office or retail.

Hotel: recovered fundamentals, selective capital

The hotel sector's operating fundamentals have recovered to pre-pandemic RevPAR (revenue per available room) levels in most major markets, which has restored basic refinancing viability. But CMBS appetite for hotels remains selective by flag, market, and sponsor, and non-bank lenders are more active in bridging hotel business plans than in providing long-duration permanent capital.

Where takeout capital is coming from

The CRE lending landscape in 2026 has a different mix of active capital sources than it did in 2019. The shifts in balance since the 2022 rate cycle broadly break down into five categories.

Agency (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) dominates multifamily refinancing and is the most reliable takeout source for stabilized apartment properties. Agency lending caps are set annually by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and have consistently been available to qualified borrowers.

Banks have retreated meaningfully from some segments of CRE lending, particularly office and construction. Regional banks in particular have reduced their CRE concentration under pressure from regulators and in response to deposit volatility.

Private debt funds have grown substantially as a share of the market and now fill many of the gaps that banks have vacated. They are the most common source of bridge and transitional capital, and they increasingly provide stretch senior and mezzanine financing for value-add transactions.

CMBS issuance has partially recovered from the 2023 low but remains below pre-pandemic run rates. Underwriting is more conservative than the 2021 peak, with tighter debt yield requirements and more selective asset class appetite.

Life insurance companies remain active in long-duration permanent financing but are selective, generally favoring low-leverage, high-quality assets with strong sponsors. Life-co terms are often the most competitive available when a deal fits their box.

What borrowers are doing

Faced with a stressed refinancing environment, commercial borrowers are pursuing a handful of strategies depending on property performance, sponsor liquidity, and lender relationships.

The most common strategy is a conventional refinance into a new permanent loan at current market rates, often at a lower LTV than the expiring loan. This works when the property has enough cash flow to service the new debt and the sponsor is willing to accept higher carry costs.

A second strategy is a loan extension with the existing lender. Extensions have become more common on loans where a full refinance isn't available and the existing lender would rather modify than take the asset back. Extensions often require partial principal paydowns, equity contributions, or covenant tightening as consideration.

A third strategy is a cash-in refinance, where the sponsor contributes additional equity to right-size the loan to current market metrics. This is becoming more common among sponsors with dry powder who want to preserve ownership in properties they believe will recover.

A fourth strategy is an outright sale, which is most common when the sponsor concludes that refinancing at current rates won't work and a disposition is the cleanest exit. Sale prices in many markets reflect the new rate environment and are materially below pre-2022 peaks.

A fifth strategy, used in the most stressed situations, is a discounted payoff or deed-in-lieu negotiation with the existing lender. These workouts typically involve new capital coming into the property at a reset basis, often provided by specialty opportunistic funds.

Primary sources cited

• MBA Commercial/Multifamily Research (CREF Databook, Quarterly Databook, Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Report)
• Trepp Research (CMBS delinquency data, maturity schedules, sector-level commentary)
• Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report (semi-annual, commercial real estate risk commentary)
• CBRE Research (market-level commentary, sector outlooks, cap rate surveys)
• Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (Treasury yields, SOFR, referenced throughout this article)

Data as of 2026-04-12. Figures shown are indicative, drawn from the MBA CREF Databook and Trepp trust disclosures. Methodologies vary between sources, and published numbers are updated quarterly. Informational only. Not a loan quote. RefiHub is a marketplace, not a lender, broker, or advisor.